The last couple of months have been “off the hook” busy.  They’ve been GREAT months, business has been good.  I’ve gotten some continuing education in, which, for a locksmith, usually means traveling.

I’ve read an incredible book along the way too.  ”The Go-Giver”.

This book has adjusted my outlook quite a bit.  I’m finding myself more fulfilled and content than I’ve ever been by relentlessly pursuing the success of others.  Striving to make contributions to others that may or may not make a difference in their lives or businesses.

During my most recent travel, I sat beside a woman who was on her way to Nashville to be with her son during surgery.  She’s from southwest Oklahoma.  She has a family member who does work for T. Boone Pickens, the “lets run our cars on natural gas and use the natural wind resource we have in the center of the country to lower our demand on foreign oil” guy.

She went on to tell me about his humble beginnings in Oklahoma.  He came from a family that never had much and rose up to an incredible level of prosperity.  I’m always intrigued by stories like this.  Stories where the main character fought his way through and ended up great at the end.  But, there’s something about T. Boone that struck me at the end of this interaction.

This very same family member had been diagnosed with prostate cancer.  When T. Boone heard of this, he arranged treatment at a hospital in Texas that he had MAJORLY supported over the years for this friend, who was also a vendor.

When I heard this part, I was struck.  It left me thinking, I bet T. Boone hasn’t fought through anything to achieve the success he has.  I bet he has “given-through” his life and now is reaping the rewards of it.

So, a particular car manufacturer is out on a “relentless pursuit of perfection”

most wall street bankers/executives are on a “relentless pursuit to take from others as much as they can”

But, I think I’ve found mine…

“In relentless pursuit of the success of others.”

So, get busy giving…

The Go-Giver: A Little Story About a Powerful Business Idea

It happened today!!

What?

*IT* -

What happens when a tow truck needs a tow truck?

What happens when a plumber has a leaky faucet?

the shoe repair guy needs a new sole?

What exactly happens when the mime doesn’t pay their cable bill?

when the LOCKSMITH needs a ….oh sheesh…do I really have to admit this???

Yes. IT.

IN the midst of business today – I did IT.  I was in a rush.  I’m working on a second venture.  I was wearing two hats today.  In some cool meetings this morning, meeting folks, telling them about my new adventure, then, heading to the house, setting myself up for what has been normal for 9 years, 11months, and about 20 days, when, all the sudden, it hit me – My ring of keys is sitting in the house on my desk, and I just shut the door….and it was NOT unlocked…

I felt that moment of panic, for, well, just a moment.  Ya know, when an electric motor starts, there’s an instant where the motor draws a surge of current to get those first couple of turns in, they’re intense, they’re a HEAVY drain, yeh, a moment like that….It didn’t last long at all, but, it was  a moment nonetheless…

THANKFULLY I have a solution, it has been there for quite some time.  It’s a little combination box that got mounted to the frame when I was building out my work van.  It’s a push button combination lockbox, and I remember when it was put on – I thought, “Comon!! I should NEVER need that!!”

Well, today, I was SO glad I took the time to install that box.  I remember installing it thinking, “Man, I could have saved this time on the build out, and had my new ride on the street this much quicker….” – I’m glad I spent that time back then, because the investment of that time paid itself in dividends beyond belief today!!!

Well, a picture, or, in this case, a video will replace me typing 1,000 words today.

I’ll warn you now – it’s a video with Glen Beck – I know many don’t care for the guy, and may not watch this because of that.  I personally don’t care for him much, but, in this video, he is right:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4GUbJwu3mc

Hopefully this one will be educational to all!

This simple concept presented is a MAJOR reason why we such price fluctuations – because foreign countries we receive goods from have a better grip on the importance of good monetary policy, their currency is stronger, and because of their currency being stronger, it takes more dollars to pay them for what they’re producing and sending to us.

Because of the lower interest rates the Federal Reserve has set on the dollar, the dollar is now a “carry trade victim” – it’s the currency that’s sold off in order for investors to gain higher interest rates on their money by holding higher yielding currencies INSTEAD of the dollar.  (You can checkout Http://www.centralbankrates.com to see more about the dollars interest rate position against other currencies.)

Surrounding this is the core market principle of supply and demand.  When dollars are sold, and other currencies are bought up in place of them, the supply is increased and the value is diminished.

Do I start with all the reporting that’s NOT making it to regular media about all the problems with vaccines?  What about the post I saw on facebook where a persons mother had swine flu – it lasted about 48 hours and wasn’t even as bad as a case of seasonal flu?  Why all this hype about Swine flu??  Why all this talk of mandatory vaccination??

Economic Recovery!!!  Lets look at happier stuff….well…if you’re day is starting well – you might want to skip this -

So, here we have Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve saying that we’re technically finished with our recession…I’ve got a couple of questions though -

This is the SAME guy who said as all of this started that “The housing market should contain itself…” – I remember the morning I saw him saying this live.  I couldn’t believe what I was hearing.  When someone purchases a new house, what do they typically do??  EXACTLY – they go out and buy stuff for it.  They go to the furniture store, and buy stuff so they can take up room, because typically they’re getting a bigger house and they feel the need to have more stuff occupy it.  They go to Wal-Mart, and they buy new dish towels, maybe some bath towels, maybe replace some small items that got lost in their move, or were damaged, or, are just old and worn out and they want to start in their “new” house with new stuff.  If they don’t like the curtains that the previous owner left, they’re gonna get new ones!!  On top of all these things, they may have walked into a situation where they have some equity to spend – so, will they take a once in a lifetime trip?  Will they buy a new car?  Will they consolidate all of those small purchases into their equity line so they can free up consumer debt instruments to buy more crap?  So, I myself, am not very interested in hearing what many of our leaders have to say about our economic situation – they’ve been WAY wrong up to this point and I don’t see a lot of reason to trust what they say now.  Given all of this, which is historically true – just take a look at the difference in same store sales for Wal-Mart and any other retailer, HOW IN THE WORLD COULD YOU SAY THAT HOUSING SHOULD CONTAIN ITSELF!!????

While quite a few things that George Celente, of the Trends Research Institute says are pretty dang scary, I have to agree with him on one point.  ”The way out of deep economic hardship isn’t by spending, it’s by producing.”  So, here we are, we’re in an economic toilet, and everybody is trying to figure out how to spend their way out.  Another statement has been the fact that we shouldn’t repeat the ills of the “Great Depression” of the 30′s.  Well, we made it out of it – how?? BY PRODUCING.  Question:  What do we produce now?? Oh, yeh, all of our jobs are now overseas because we don’t really produce anything here anymore.  So, now that we don’t produce, how can we recover?

Why are we looking at methodologies from the 30′s to get us out of this current situation?  Lets look at what we didn’t have in the 30′s – We didn’t have all the global ties we do now.  The internet wasn’t something as common as it is now.  We were producing.  Our trade balance wasn’t negative.  Our dollar was stronger, so, our money went further, and this is why prices were lower.  So, now that we have a dollar that has been masterfully diminished since then, we have an absolutely horrendous trade balance, and we aren’t producing anything anymore – How can we use these ideas now?  Oh, wait, that’s right – a WAR got us out.  BUT, how can a war get us out of what we’re in now?  We’re already in two of them, government debt is skyrocketing, on top of that, many of our “debt supporters” aren’t as thrilled about picking up US Treasury notes as they once were…

US Treasury notes are bonds.  Bonds are interesting.  You have two things there:  The price of a bond, and the yield of a bond.  There is an inverse correlation between the two, and just form observation, I think I know why this inverse correlation exists.  I’m not a formally trained economist, I’m not formally trained in a lot of things, I just strive to use my brain and think through logically what I see. So, for you pro economists reading, hang in here, and if I’m wrong, leave a comment – I could use the education.

Bonds are issued by someone or an entity looking for money to fund something.  You hear of muni bonds, issued by local governments to fund projects, buildings, roads, etc. etc. etc….

Our federal government uses bonds to fund it’s massive operation.

When an issuer of a bond needs more money – he may lower the coupon price and up the yield.  This makes purchasing the bond more attractive to the buyer because for a lower price he can get a better yield.  When the issuer has enough money and wants to tighten the flow of money into whatever project/operation he’s funding, he’ll raise the price on the bond and lower the yield.  This makes the vehicle less attractive.  I remember when all of this started and the stock market crashed – bond yields took a dive and coupon prices climbed.  This gave the dollar unprecedented support.  This caused the dollar to rally against other global currencies, and, you may remember the short period of days where gasoline was less than $2/gallon – this was why – a stronger dollar.  So, what makes something more valuable?  Right – supply and demand – dollar supply was tightened by the “liquidity crisis” many LARGE banks and financial institutions were working through and this was lowering dollar supplies substantially, also contributing to lower prices because, again, like the 30′s when the dollar was stronger, our dollars were going further.

Here’s my concern, we’ve started to see yields move back up some, and all the rhetoric of China not being willing to support debt through purchase of US Treasury notes.  Why?  Well, China relies on US consumers buying all their goods so that they can afford to purchase all that debt….How much buying has occured in recent times??  Right, so, China isn’t doing so well currently either – they need a confident US consumer, and right now, they don’t have that.

Where do we go from here?

Ahhhh…new legislation for cleaner air!!!!  Oh wait, New legislation for cleaner air that will bring 1.2 million new jobs!!!

This one’s great – we’re gonna start a new trading market.  We’re gonna setup a trading floor so that you can buy and sell “carbon credits”!!!  We’re gonna have a new commodity to move.  We’re gonna start another bubble!!!! We’ve figured it out!! The part that isn’t making popular headlines is that Goldman-Sachs has been working on this trading floor for quite some time – they’ve just been waiting for all the hype to kick in about global warming so mass population will believe this is a good thing (the trading floor to exchange carbon credits) – And who use to be the CEO at Goldman??!!!  RIGHT!!! Mr. H. paulson – our former treasury secretary!!!!  Does something stink or is it just me??

I hope all of this makes some sense.  We’ve got some BIG problems.  Be smart with your money.  Don’t over spend, and most of all, don’t believe what everyone says.  I think we’re in the midst of a sucker rally.  Many are thinking we’re on the way out of this hole….But, I believe there’s more to come.

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

Commercial Real Estate is the next major problem I see – yes, I have formed that opinion based on much more research by others, but it does make sense.  Because of the lack of confidence of the US consumer, and the fact his debt is lowering and he’s actually saving now, businesses don’t have near as many buyers as they have previously.  Therefore, they’re having to move to smaller locations and many are shutting down.  I notice more and more empty commercial real estate space now than ever before.  I have a few routes I drive very regularly.  From one day to the next, these facilities have been losing occupants.  Commercial Real Estate is similar to residential – creative financing and all…And talk about a “commodity” with over inflated values!!!

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE:

Have we hit bottom there yet? I don’t believe so.  Lets look at what has gotten us to where we are, and approach the rest with common sense…which ain’t so common it seems…

So, in 2004, a person would go buy a house.  He could get 100% of it financed.  How?  Well, he’d get creative with the financing and only pay interest for a set term, then, depending on market conditions, he would re-finance to lock in a rate/payment.  So, this major increase in foreclosures has come from the lack of ability for folks to refinance these houses that they paid too much for to start with and then couldn’t get financing to lock in a payment they could afford. Next step is losing the house.

So, you could get an interest only loan that you pay interest only on for 3, 5, or 7 years.  By my estimation – I’d say at the start of 2007, you could still get one of these interest only loans.  So, on a 3 year interest only note – you’re probably gonna be “passing through the fire” of losing your home in 2010 if you can’t get financing you can afford so you can keep your home.

So, with this in mind, I think it’s possible the real estate market won’t see it brightest days again until at LEAST 2010, and it could even be beyond that.

If you’ve read this far – thanks for reading.  This hasn’t been an easy post to write.  I don’t like doom and gloom, but, we have to look at what’s really going on and do our own homework, regardless of how simple our work may be, it can be revealing.

I have two Saturn Ignitions to go take a look at and figure out why they’re not running like warm butter through toast.

I have a Nissan with a broken ignition switch that will be replaced.  Since Nissan vehicles come out of the factory working on one key, I’ll be matching the rest of the car up to the new ignition.

I’ll be making another clunker key today – this one is kinda surprising – It’s a 2008 Chevrolet Cobalt.  Hmmm…..Did someone hate the GM they purchased THAT much??

I’ll be looking at a Lincoln Town Car to figure out why the Passenger side door lock isn’t working.  The customer has been told that because the passenger door lock isn’t working, they’re going to have to put all new locks in the car.  Yep, you read that right ALL NEW LOCKS.  Well, I’ll be looking specifically at the passenger side door lock to determine what’s happening with that lock only.  She won’t be replacing all of them on my clock.

I’m waiting to hear back from a customer who need an extra remote for a Saturn Product.

I may be ordering parts for a long time associate.  His wife is opening a barber shop.  She has purchased new display cases that no keys were available for.  The cases have “u-change” tubular locks on them.  (Tubular locks use tubular keys.  Tubular keys are also commonly known as “coke bottle keys” – you know, the round ones??) – With the type of locks these are, making a key isn’t going to be very feasible.  The plan is to retrofit the doors of the case with different locks so the product showcased will be nice and secure.

I have four vehicles to work on at one stop.  Three ford based products that need extra keys and remotes, and a GM mixed in.  Why don’t they just run the keys to one of the major home center stores?  They’re all chipped.  You can’t just cut a metal key that will start the car. Read more about this here.

Thanks for reading.

“In the works” -

I’m working through a post on the dollar.  I find many who don’t understand the correlation between the value of the dollar and fuel prices and how the federal reserve affects this with monetary policy decisions.  This may have some 401K tips involved as well.

“Where are the strings for all of those who got a new car that was funded in part with government money under the Cash for Clunkers program??”

The concept of “taxing by the mile” has been mentioned some over recent history – I’m not real up on when the first idea of it came about, but, I am confident the technology exists to implement something like this.

I’d like to present a personal opinion:  that the Cash for Clunkers program is a “precursor” to taxing you per mile that you drive your vehicle.  I think it’s VERY possible that the group of people who have taken part in the “Cash for Clunkers” program will probably be the first batch to “try out” the “tax by mileage” scam presented here:

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h111-3311

The part that concerns me is that there is probably some small print that nobody read when it came to signing on the dotted line for that funding for their new car.  It probably said something like, “since you’re getting this money – we’re gonna be informing you later of how you’ll be ‘paying us back’ for giving this to you.”  The exact same thing that regulators have been all over banks about with predatory lending in residential properties and such – and now, those who make the laws aren’t doing their part to be an example.

(I must admit and fully disclose that I have no inside knowledge of whether this possibility is 100% iron clad or not – but, the pieces sure do fit together – and you know what they say – if the shoe fits…….)

Thanks for reading…maybe something other than cash for clunkers will be covered over the next couple of days – I’ve been thinking about it a good bit because of all the cash for clunkers cars I’ve made keys to this week at Dealers who lost them…

Many of you reading know that I’m a locksmith.  I specialize in automotive stuff.  Many say, “Oh, you spend your days running around and opening cars?  How many do you do a day?” – The answer to this question would surprise you.  I *might* go out to just open a car once a month.  I do open a lot of cars, but, this is usually a first step in what needs to be done.

I have quite a few dealership clients, and, lately I’ve had quite a few opportunities to hear more about the “Cash for Clunkers” program than the average joe because of this.

A few weeks ago I was at a large dealership.  During the Cash for clunkers (CFC) program, this particular dealership had done about 350 deals. If all of those deals were worth $3,500 each, the total sum of money owed to this dealer by the Government would be $1,225,000.  Lets take half of those and make them $4,500.  In that scenario, which I believe may be closer to correct, the dealership is owed $1,400,000.

Next, let me take you through some of the things I’ve heard first hand from a few dealerships I’ve been to recently:

Those 350 cars mentioned above – Well, the dealer has yet to receive the first dollar for any of them.  On top of that, they were left with 9 new cars on their lot at the end of the program.  Wow, that sounds GREAT!!  ALL of that inventory was moved?!  Yes, it was, and yes, they made some sales, BUT, the manufacturer they represent has tightened production because of terrible economic news and they now don’t know when they’re going to be able to re-stock their lot!!  On top of that, they’re at least $1,000,000 behind!!

At another dealer, a specifc deal goes like this -

The customer came in and purchased a new vehicle.  They had a trade in.  The dealer was approved to receive $3,500 for this clunker.  AT the end of the story, the dealership only received $1,200 from the deal.  REASON:  The customer had a tax liability which was satisfied by the proceeds from the $3,500 that was supposed to be credited in full to the deal.

Same dealer:

Customer brought in a vehicle to trade in – worth $4,500 in the CFC program.  The customer elected to pay the difference for the new vehicle in cash.  No problem right? Dealership loves this right? Well, right, but wait a second – here comes “the rest of the story”.  The CFC deal is denied because the customer didn’t finance the new vehicle.  The customer then decided they didn’t want to do the deal because they didn’t want a payment.  (I’d personally like to meet this person – this alone tells me their marbles aren’t rattling around as much as other sets I’ve seen..)  The dealer tried to get their traded in vehicle back.  They weren’t able to, it had already been crushed.  The next step was to get the customer to come back in, and work out a financing arrangement.  (I do not know how this actually played out from here at this point.  However, still a sticky place for the dealer.)

There’s another side to this that the average consumer doesn’t consider.  More expenses.  Yes, to many, the payment is the only consideration.  But wait, there’s more.  Here in Virginia, we have to pay personal property tax yearly.  This yearly property tax is based on current value, which in the first couple of years is fairly substantial.  On a $30,000 vehicle, (if memory serves me correctly), is about $600 the first two or three years.  This adds $50 per month to the expense of that shiny new vehicle.  On top of this, additional insurance.  Now that you’re financing a vehicle, again, in Virginia, you are required to carry full coverage in order that the financial institution carrying your deal will have their risk minimized. Of course this rate changes according to your history with the company, you driving record, etc. etc….risk pool….on and on the list of analytical tools goes…

Here’s an IM I received from someone I know who works in financial markets these days:

“Subject: Clunkers

>>        A vehicle at 15 mpg and 12,000 miles per year uses

800 gallons a year of gasoline.

>>        A vehicle at 25 mpg and 12,000 miles per year uses

480 gallons a year.

>>        So, the average “Cash for Clunkers” transaction will

reduce US gasoline consumption by 320 gallons per year.

>>        They claim 700,000 vehicles – so that’s 224 million gallons / year

>>        That equates to a bit over 5 million barrels of oil.

>>         5 million barrels of oil is about 1/4 of one day’s US consumption.

>>         And, 5 million barrels of oil costs about $350

million dollars at $70/bbl.

>>    So, we all contributed to spending $3 billion to save $350 million.

>>         How good a deal was that ???”

So, with all the great attention the CFC program has gotten – who has it really served?

Well, on the opposite side of every liability is an asset.  So, when you buy that new car, you’re becoming someone elses asset.

How will we know how successful this program has been?

In about a year, when all those payments stop getting made and all those cars start being repoed we will know how well this program has done.

I personally, think this program was a banker bailout in another form.  That’s who will ultimately win or lose from this.  They’re the ones holding the “assets” from these sales, not you, me, or the dealerships.

“In 1916, a minister and outspoken advocate for liberty, William J. H. Boetcker, published a pamphlet entitled The Ten Cannots: You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift. You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong. You cannot help the poor man by destroying the rich. You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred.

You cannot build character and courage by taking away man’s initiative and independence. You cannot help small men by tearing down big men. You cannot lift the wage earner by pulling down the wage payer. You cannot keep out of trouble by spending more than your income. You cannot establish security on borrowed money. You cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they will not do for themselves.”

This is my first blog post I’ve ever made…Get ready for more….

Sept. 14, 2009